Robert Walls earns his crust writing provocative articles. And I feel for the bloke sometimes. Because he is under pressure to come up with his little bit of talkback controversy every week, and every time he writes an article some of his credibility gets lost. It seems like a strange time to question the future of Mick Malthouse. The Pies are in the Panasonic cup Grand Final and they have a young list with a lot of potential and some valuable finals experience. Last year they won a final in Adelaide with an injury depleted team missing key players. So what can Malthouse do to ensure his future?
Make a grand final, according to Walls. The finals are miles away, so speculating on whether they will make it is pointless. But to say that Malthouse should already be feeling the pressure is baseless. His record is very good. His win-loss record at Collingwood is 50 percent. Walls argues that the Collingwood board may view this percentage as unacceptable. But in the modern AFL every team is expected to ‘bottom out’ every 3-4 years. At some stage in a cycle, playing young players, performing poorly and receiving high draft picks is accepted, if not actively encouraged, by supporters. So a 50 percent ratio is very respectable. Malthouse has bottomed out once at Collingwood, where they finished two seasons in the bottom three, but he has made the finals five times in nine years, including two Grand Finals. In recent years he has also made a brave attempt to introduce a lot of young players whilst still aiming for the finals. In comparison to other experienced coaches in the league, his record is also quite good. Eade has a better ratio, but no grand final, and his team seems still seems a way off. Roos and Worsfold have won flags but the Eagles are rebuilding now and the Swans’ demise is widely predicted. Clarkson has a poorer ratio but a premiership. Malthouse’s most powerful team was only beaten by the almighty Brisbane Lions.
So if his win-loss ratio is not a problem, Malthouse might be worried about Nathan Buckley waiting in the wings. Buckley is much too savvy to even think about coaching Collingwood until Malthouse is well and truly gone. He also has Tony Shaw in the adjoining commentary box to remind him of the perils of the favourite son. Eddie McGuire is much too savvy to think about crossing Malthouse to introduce Buckley. Malthouse will have to have a very ordinary year, or to resign, before Buckley gets that job. Would Collingwood sack him if he won another final with a young team? No. Which makes Walls’ speculation quite meaningless. But a lot of his opinion pieces are. Malthouse is not young, but his team is, and he and Collingwood should be pretty optimistic about 2009 and 2010.
The Demise of Sydney....Based on...?
The trend towards 'rebuilding' and 'bottoming out' has gone much too far in the last decade. As soon as a team starts losing a few games supporters and the media begin talking of bottoming out. Losing games and giving up midway through seasons so a club can get good draft picks is now the norm. Unfortunately, it is assumed that a period of success is inevitably followed by a period of failure. Hawthorn's premiership is the first example of a team hitting rock bottom, getting draft picks, and rebuilding to a flag. But some of the experienced coaches in the AFL may have a problem with the common opinion that success is cyclical. Malthouse is already bucking the trend. He plays very young players in important positions and continues to make the finals. Paul Roos is the same. The age of his team is well documented, and most experts will probably predict that they will miss the eight this year. But the players are only 6 months older than the team that won a final last year. They are experienced, well coached and good. On the other hand, Carlton are widely tipped to be the rising team this year. As Roos pointed out last year, the Blues, despite their masses of draft picks (and Juddy!), have yet to play a decent season since the horrible Pagan years. For all their potential, they are only that. Potential. They have no results to speak of. Sydney have results, and winning experience. The same as North Melbourne, another team that is always on the slide, but often in the finals. Looking to the future is natural, but a good team doesn't disintegrate overnight. Maybe the obsession with football being a young man's game has gone a little bit too far.
3 comments:
ive never heard as much positive talk about Collingwood come from your lips young man! but bravo! me for one, i like Robbie Walls off the cuff commentary and dry sense of humour on 3aw(not the family friendly tv10), but you are right, there are too many ex-sportsmen with their weekly columns and not enough to write about. As much focus should be paid to Caroline's outlandish call of Eddie getting the sack! That is more wishful thinking on her behalf than good reasoning. She is a crab, end of comment!
I was either practicing a bit of selective reading or you completely neglected to mention Richmond's semi-permanent trough of poor performance. Good to see both you and the Sydney boys are mellowing out in their old age.
Richo for life.
If the common logic is that a period of success will be followed by a period of poor performance, Richmond is obviously hoping that the opposite is also true. That is how Wallet sleeps at night.
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