The following article was published on thebigtip.com.au on 20 May 2010
Round 20, 2008. Hawthorn sits second on the ladder and has a full strength team, one remarkably similar to the group that received premiership medals over a month later. In fact their starting 18 consisted of 18 soon to be premiership players. As a tune up for the finals, the Hawks took on 10 th placed Richmond. The Tigers were surging, again, towards an inevitable 9th place, giving their hungry fans a short look at the finals and another number 8 draft pick. Incredibly, then coach Terry Wallace was even fending off questions about a possible contract extension, such was the momentum the tiges were building. At such an important part of the season, the Hawks should have comfortably beaten Richmond, stamping their authority on the competition. Instead, the Tigers led at every change, and ran out comfortable 29 point winners. Exactly 41 days later Hawthorn fans were celebrating an unlikely flag. Richmond supporters were speculating (foolishly) on how their team’s late season form would lead into glory in 2009.
The concept that a team’s round 22 form can lead into good round one form 6 months later is complete folly, as proven by Richmond. In the same way, the idea that Collingwood’s sparkling round 8 form improves their chances of a premiership later in the year is naive. The best thing about Collingwood’s form right now is that the team can maybe afford to lose games later in the year and still finish top four. A football season is much like a football game. Momentum swings are inevitable, and the pies will no doubt lose some of their current form before the finals, be it due to injuries or top players simply losing from. Whether they can regain it is the most important thing. As Geelong found out in 2008, and StKilda in 2009, maintaining brilliant form for the whole year, culminating in a flag, is practically impossible.
Unfortunately, analysis of current form, and how it pertains to outcomes in September, means absolutely nothing. Experienced journalists are well aware of this, but the public’s desire to see current form trends become premiership predictions is insatiable. As Ross Lyon stated so profoundly: ‘we live in an instant society’. Supporters are impatient. But the great coaches must be patient, regardless of the unreasonable demands of the public. Bomber Thompson’s master stroke last season was resting large groups of players before the finals. Even if the team lost games, he stuck to his courageous strategy. For him, maintaining winning form before the finals was not important. Once a top four spot was guaranteed, all attention turned to having the team ready for finals. Nothing else. Winning form only mattered in finals matches, most particularly the grand final. Master coaches like Thompson and Malthouse know only too well how long a football season is, and one can sense their frustration as journalists harp on about this weeks game being a Grand Final preview. Thompson will be bemused by premiership talk. He’s walked the long road 3 times, and 2008 will remain a viscious reminder of how hard it is to actually get a flag.
This time last year Malthouse was, according to many journalists, about to be sacked. His problems last year, much like his success this year, were due to injuries to key players. He will know that finals success, more than ever, is dependent on full squads in September, not in May.
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